Over the last few weeks I've had this idea for a trading strategy. Basically a set of rules which describe when to buy or sell currencies. I input those rules into my PC which makes decisions for me really quickly.
The difference with programming a trading strategy and a potentially marketable piece of software, is that you know that you can get instant gratification once you have a trading algorithm. You don't need to market or distribute a trading algorithm or have a fancy front end, iron out the bugs and it's (hopefully) making you money from the word go!
Well that's the theory, I can always hope, eh?
Amazing how my psychology changed once I could see theoretical profits being computed in front of my eyes (based on data since 1999). The morning after, I went to work, and I was convinced I had this trading business licked. I was think about setting up my own hedge fund, living by a beach in Manado, maybe doing one or two trades a day and then devoting the rest of my time to teaching programming to kids in the local pesentren (for me programming is like mental kung fu, a bit like the kung fu in Shaolin Soccer).
Talk about getting carried away! Once I got home, I spotted two serious mistakes. I would now have made large losses over the last 9 years with the strategy. I could see my decades stuck in offices in front of me. Drudgery! But then I tweaked the strategy a little and was back into dreamland! :)
Everyday has been like that, I just hope on the final day of tweaking and poking, I'll have a strategy that'll reap me large returns on paper as well as in reality.
At the moment, I need new market data and have to nix a particularly dodgy assumption I made on price movements. But until I do that, the strategy is showing profits of around €200k with €1k initial investment over around 9 years.
I think I'll choose to live in ignorance a while longer, feels good to be imaginary rich :)